Facebook Pixel

Economic strength

Strong economies generally have strong currencies. The two seem to go hand in hand. When an economy is performing well, it means that corporations are making profits, most of the workforce is employed and, in most cases, interest rates are going up. Each one of these characteristics of a strong economy benefits you as a Forex trader.

Naturally, if central banks watch inflation indicators (like the CPI and PPI) in their decision-making process, you would assume they would also be interested in watching economic strength indicators to see how strong an economy is—and they most certainly are. Central banks watch the following fundamental economic indicators to gauge the strength of an economy, and so should you:

  • Gross domestic product - GDP
  • Payroll Employment
  • Retail sales
  • Durable good orders

Gross domestic product - GDP

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity available. Reported quarterly, GDP growth is widely followed as the primary indicator of economic strength.

GDP represents the total value of a country's production during the period and consists of the purchases of domestically produced goods and services by individuals, businesses, foreigners and the government 

As GDP reports are often subject to substantital quarter-to-quartes volatility and revicions, it is preferable to follow the indicatort on a year-to- year basis. It can be valuable to follow the trend rate of growth in each of the major categories of GDP to determine the strengths and weaknesses  in the economy.

A high GDP figure is often associated with the expectations of higher interest rates, which is frequently positive, at least in the short term, for the currency involved, unless expectations of increased inflation pressure is concurrently undermining confidence in the currency. 

Payroll Employment

Payroll employment is a measure of the number of people being paid as employees by non-farm business establishments and units of government.

Monthly changes in payroll employment reflect the net number of new jobs created or lost during the month and changes are widely followed as an important indicator of economic activity.

Payroll employment is one of the primary monthly indicators of aggregate economic activity because it encompasses every major sector of the economy. It is also useful to examine trends in job creation in several industry categories because the aggregate data can mask significant deviations in underlying industry trends.

Retail sales

Retail Sales are a measure of the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly percentage changes reflect the rate of change of such sales and are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending

Retails Sales are a major indicator of consumer spending because they account for nearly one-half of total consumer spending and approximately one-third of aggregate economic activity. 

Often, Retail Sales are followed less auto sales because these are generally much more volatile than the rest of the Retail Sales and can therefore obscure the more important underlying trend.

Retail Sales are measured in nominal terms and therefore include the effects of inflation. Rising Retail Sales are often associated with a strong economy and therefore an expectation of higher short-term interest rates that are often supportive to a currency at least in the short term. 

Durable good orders

Durable Goods Orders are a measure of the new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for immediate and future delivery of factory hard  goods. Monthly percent changes reflect the rate of change of such orders.

Levels of, and changes in, durable goods order are widely followed as an  indicator of factory sector momentum.

Durable Goods Orders are a major indicator of manufacturing sector trends because most industrial production is done to order. Often, the indicator is followed but excludes Defense and Transportation orders because these are generally much more volatile than the rest of the orders and can obscure the more important underlying trend.

Durable Goods Orders are measured in nominal terms and therefore include the effects of inflation. Therefore the Durable Goods Orders should be compared to the trend growth rate in PPI to arrive at the real, inflation-adjusted Durable Goods Orders.

Rising Durable Goods Orders are normally associated with stronger economic activity and can therefore lead to higher short-term interest rates that are often supportive to a currency at least in the short term.

回去

Next

adwise